By Bosco Mutarambirwa
The author of the following opinion piece wrote it in the heat of the assassination of General Adolphe Nshimirimana announced on Sunday 2nd, 2015 in Bujumbura. Further to that critical event in the ongoing troubled Burundian situation, I also analysed it from a different angle. I reproduce here Bosco Mutarambirwa views on the issue assuming that all this could help the reader look at the unfolding crisis from an angle probably different from the one mainstream media want everyone to uphold. Like in the Rwandan situation of 1994, Nkurunziza might be killed and then accused of having died after planning a tutsi genocide in Burundi, though it is clear for everybody to see that Kigali is gearing towards it because it would help Kagame to have a satellite country south of Akanyaru river, as did Museveni with Rwanda back then.
Rwanda’s Directorate Military Intelligence is all over Burundi, it is working closely with Museveni’s intelligence. Does Burundi have intelligence inside Rwanda? Kagame is doing most of the dirty work on Museveni’s behalf, because Rwanda’s borders Burundi and Uganda does not. As Kagame intensifies his targeted assassination operations inside Burundi, president Pierre Nkurunziza has a few options to consider:
(1) Prepare for an all out war with Rwanda. To do this he needs serious backing from a more powerful ally such as Russia, Tanzania, South Africa, or a combination. Nkurunziza may have a disciplined army but does not have enough financial resources and military equipment to open a conventional frontline on his own.
(2) Support Rwanda’s opposition. Should go as far as hosting a base for Front Democratique pour la Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) as they prepare to unseat Kagame’s regime. The risk is, Nkurunziza should prepare to be rained on by Kagame’s and Museveni’s armies with a more robust support from the same foreign actors that have already been brainwashed into believing that FDLR are evil people. Nkurunziza would take advantage of the expertise and knowledge of Rwanda’s terrain, knowledge that FDLR men and women already possess.
(3) Plan and execute some high profile targeted killings. Taking down one of Kagame’s top partners-in-crime such as Nziza or Kabarebe would raise some eyebrows. It may also prove a more cost effective way to slow down the chaos Kagame has created in Burundi. It may expose Kagame’s growing vulnerability. Yes, Burundian army is mixed (Hutus and Tutsis) which makes it prone to infiltration by DMI, but RPF has lots of holes as well. An ever increasing top notch military officers have been fleeing RPF lately.
Targeted killings may even aim at Kagame himself. Why not? Kill-him-before-he-kills-me type of situation. Preemptive attacks.
It is regrettable that it has come to this, but Nkurunziza would be too naive to not see that he’s the next target. Nkurunziza has got to do something or else he’s a dead-walking man. Habyarimana watched on as things unfolded in mid-1990s grenades blew up inside Rwanda, Gatabazi was killed, Gapyisi was assassinated, Bucyana, and many more. President Habyarimana did nothing. Habyarimana thought probably that inaction was more conducive to peace. God knows how wrong Habyarimana was. In the end Habyarimana was assassinated along with his top military officers in one shot. Nkurunziza’s better watch his own back, or nobody else will. He cannot afford seat idle.